A Moment to Breath!
During the first half of this year, following a period of volatility in the previous year that led to inflationary growth in different asset classes, we observed a relatively calmer phase with reduced volatility in various markets, including capital market, FOREX, gold, and real estate. One contributing factor to this stability can be attributed to Iran's increasing engagement with other nations, commencing with the normalization of relations with Saudi Arabia last March, and further progressing with the agreement with the United States to release dual-national prisoners in exchange for funds previously blocked in South Korea. These funds have been released and transferred to Iranian accounts in Qatar, with Iran being permitted to utilize these USD 6 billion for purchasing goods and services not subjected to sanctions. Another key development in the past three months is the notable increase in Iran's oil sales to approximately 2 million barrels per day, reaching levels unseen since the inception of sanctions in 2018. In a previous report, there was speculation that the United States may have provided unofficial consent for an expansion of Iran's oil sales. This move may have been driven by a dual purpose: to influence the global oil price and to encourage Iran's re-engagement in diplomatic negotiations. On the other hand, Russia and Saudi Arabia decided to curtail oil production until the conclusion of 2023. The two events prompted the oil prices to recede below $90 per barrel by the end of the month. it is conceivable that, without China's increased purchases of Iranian oil, the price of crude oil might have reached even higher levels.
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